Questions for every title contender
Eastern Conference
Milwaukee Bucks 50–8, trending upwards
Can Khris Middleton hit enough shots?
At this stage of Giannis’ career, you can chalk up a 25–10–5 statline at the absolute worst. Obviously, Giannis can take over games and entire series but can his supporting cast keep defenses honest? Middleton is averaging 21–6–4 in less than 30 minutes and has been a tremendous sidekick to Giannis over the last three seasons.
That tune changed in the Bucks loss to Toronto in the 2019 Eastern Conference Finals as Middleton averaged 14 points on 41% shooting. With Kawhi in Giannis’s jersey, Middleton could not make enough plays to take the pressure off his superstar teammate. If Middleton struggles again, maybe Giannis does take a look players across the league that may better suit his game.
It might not matter if Giannis channels his ’94 Hakeem or ’11 Dirk but every day Giannis is one step closer to becoming a free agent. I highly doubt Giannis leaves if the Bucks win it all but Giannis could take a look at California if the Bucks fall short.Mike Budenholzer is a great regular season coach but he has often been out-coached in the Eastern Playoffs. Eric Bledsoe can go ice-cold in a playoff series and Malcolm Brogdon is in Hoosier Country now. That being said, Milwaukee should win the East.
Toronto Raptors 42–16, trending upwards
Does Toronto have enough firepower/shot creating?
I don’t know if it is the retro dinosaur look, Nick Nurse in general or their team cohesiveness but maybe Toronto can win the East without Kawhi. The Raptors are coming off of a championship and are more concerned with serving looks than their inferior opponents. Pascal Siakam is a game-wrecker on both ends and could take another step we did not see coming during the playoffs. Though Lowry and FVV are solid playmakers, I worry about if Toronto can create enough shots in the post season. Both of Toronto’s guards are six-one(at best)and could struggle with longer defenders in the postseason. With Kawhi’s emigration to America, Siakam also gets tasked with opponents’ toughest defender now instead of their second. I am very high on Nurse and Siakam so we will see what they have in store this postseason.
Boston Celtics 40–17, trending upwards
Could Boston actually hang with Milwaukee?
Call me biased but Tatum may average 30 in a playoff series this year. Tatum may not have the explosiveness of some wings but his outside shooting makes up for it. At 23 points a game on 44–39–82 splits, the Celtics might have the best pure scorer in the Eastern Conference. Mix in Kemba Walker, Jaylen Brown and Gordon Hayward and defenses cannot send too much help Tatum’s way. None of this might matter if the Bucks live up to their potential but the Celtics have the scorers. Of course containing Giannis is easier said than done but Hayward or Brown could also average 20–25 points while playing off Kemba and Tatum. Boston could lose to Toronto or Milwaukee in the postseason but the talent is there for a run.
Miami Heat 36–21, trending downwards
Are Spoelstra and Butler enough to overcome their lack of shotmakers?
The Heat may not have the talent advantage in most playoff matchups but I believe they have the coaching advantage. Barring injury, I believe Spo, Jimmy Butler and Bam Adebayo should win at least two playoff games in the first round unless they somehow get matched up with Milwaukee. Butler is someone you want to go to war with but he is shooting under 25% from three this season. He is easily Miami’s best shot creator but does Miami have another option if he goes cold? Could Kendrick Nunn or Tyler Herro save the day or are they too young for the moment? The Heat started off the season clicking but have been mediocre since January.
I think Miami’s defense, coaching and homecourt advantage can potentially swing a series but Miami could flameout in round one.
Philadelphia 76ers 36–22, trending sideways
Are they going to waste everybody’s time?
Easily one of the most talented rosters in the league is plagued with the same issues that have plagued the Process. A below-average head coach, a point guard who cannot and will not shoot and a center with the potential who has not yet put it all together. With Ben Simmons out due to injury, Embiid does not have to attempt four three-pointers a game for the time being. Moving Horford to a 6th-man role may also pay dividends so Embiid could go on a tear before the playoffs begin. If Tobias Harris or Josh Richardson heat up, the 76ers could turn into fake contenders.
Western Conference
Los Angeles Lakers 44–12, trending upwards
Who is the secondary ballhandler?
Lebron and Anthony Davis could average 70 points in a playoff series but what happens when Lebron rests? Lakers coach Frank Vogel could stagger his two stars but that could leave Rondo with A.D. I do not think any Western big man can guard Davis one-on-one but it gets easier with Rondo on the court. Caruso and Quinn Cook could space the floor but how many minutes can they play in the playoffs? 2020 Lebron can still take over a playoff series but unlike 2017 Lebron, current Lebron is human and needs rest. The Lakers could potentially face the Clippers and Rockets BEFORE dealing with a 60-win Bucks team.
Denver Nuggets 40–18, trending upwards
Do they have a second scorer? Do they need one?
Wheras the Lakers, Clippers and Rockets have yet to play a playoff series together, the Nuggets are coming off a solid playoff run. Denver has the star, the depth and the coach to contend in the West but do the Nuggets have a Pippen? Nikola Jokic could average 30–20 on a poor Western opponent but is Jamal Murray enough to keep defenses honest? Tasked with being the Nuggets lead ballhandler and secondary scorer, maybe Murray is a little in over his head. If Murray gets hot, could Jokic get out of a rhythm? If Murray goes cold, who picks up the slack?Michael Porter could give the Nuggets double-digit scoring in the playoffs but his health is always a concern. Jokic may just need spacing and shooters to lead Denver to the Finals a la 2011 Dirk so we shall see. The Nuggets young trio is all 25 or under but you never know when your best shot at a title is.
Los Angeles Clippers 38–19, trending sideways
Can they click just long enough?
Kawhi Leonard and Paul George are the perfect duo in today’s game on paper but the results have been so-so. Add in Lou Will and Montrezl Harrell’s subpar defense and the Clippers margin for error is thin in the playoffs. The Clippers superstars also seem to be beefing with the Clippers role players so it will be interesting to see how it all plays out. Kawhi is arguably the NBA’s top player and Paul George is borderline top-five when healthy. If Kawhi and Lou Will can get hot enough on offense, maybe the Clippers can overcome Playoff P’s shoulders.
Houston Rockets 37–20, trending upwards
Is there a plan B?
The Rockets floor may be lower than other Western contenders but they could shoot themselves to the Finals. With two former MVPs capable of turning a game on its head, Houston has the talent necessary to win a title. My biggest concern is their health as each of the Rockets top-five players are irreplaceable. Of course Houston is screwed with a gimpy James Harden or Russell Westbrook but what if Eric Gordon or PJ Tucker or Robert Covington miss time? The Rockets do not have many wing defenders and are asking a lot from the ones they do have. I admire Houston for tripling down on small-ball but they may need a big or two in the playoffs.